Why (and how) Idaho lawmakers will try to raise taxes in 2026 and then lie about it

When you've seen the movie a million times, a remake is predictable

I just rewatched Star Trek II: The Wrath of Khan for the billionth time. I still quietly scream at the screen when Admiral Kirk takes a beat too long to raise the shields. I still tear up when Spock dies, even though I know he comes back to life in the next movie.

Idaho politics is the same kind of predictable sequel. The 2026 legislative session is already spoiling its own plot.

Act I: The state faces a budget hole in 2026 that balloons in 2027 if spending isn’t reined in.
Act II: Certain special interests (cough, public schools) want more money anyway.
Act III: It’s an election year, so broad tax hikes are off the table.
Act IV: Enter the perfect villain: there’s a product only some adults use, widely considered a “sin,” currently untaxed, and that busybodies insist taxing is all about protecting and educating the children.

That product is the vape.

Idaho’s cigarette and tobacco tax became law in 1974. Vapes didn’t exist, so they’re not taxed. The Idaho School Boards Association just passed a resolution begging legislators to “modernize” the law. The association wants the tax to apply to e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches.

Translation: tax something that isn’t taxed today. The rest of us call that a tax increase.

ISBA deputy director Quinn Perry insists it’s just an “additional revenue source” for schools and whether it’s really a new tax is “a question of semantics.” (Legislators, she helpfully notes, hate the phrase “new taxes.”)

It’s not semantics. If tomorrow the Legislature decided to slap sales tax on haircuts or car repairs, no one would call that “modernizing.” They’d call it a tax hike. Same principle.

More on this plot for paid subscribers, below: