The chameleon governor

And his forthcoming tax increase

This article was originally published in the Lewiston Tribune on Oct. 26

Last July, Idaho Gov. Brad Little stood quietly like a stuffed potato as U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., publicly congratulated him for not shutting the state down during Covid five years ago.

“Idaho did better than any other state in preserving those essential American freedoms. And a lot of that was because of the leadership of Gov. Little,” Kennedy said.

Brad didn’t really dress like this. It’s just AI

This extraordinary achievement must have taken place in a parallel universe because I very clearly remember this universe’s Brad Little ordering Idahoans to stay home, local police arresting people for visiting playgrounds, holding yard sales, and going to church; and Little’s administration threatening bars and cosmetologists with loss of their licenses.

But at this press conference with RFK, Jr., there stood Brad, quietly taking it all in, allowing his actual actions to be swallowed up into an Orwellian memory hole. It would be easy to put this aside as a one-off. Maybe Little was just trying to be polite and not contradict or embarrass his visiting federal overlords.

And yet, I can’t help but view it part of a pattern of public manipulation; Little is a master at changing the narrative regarding his views.

He’s against a ban on gay marriage and then he’s heterosexual marriage’s biggest defender.

He’s against cutting red tape and next thing you know, he’s the “red-tape-cutting governor.”

He vetoes a property tax cut and later publicly celebrates the implementation of the cuts that the Legislature made happen by going over his head.

He says we can only afford $100 million in tax cuts, and suddenly he’s signing into law $400 million in tax cuts.

He does a 180 so subtly and so deftly, he’s completely unaccountable. He’s the Chameleon governor, being whatever he needs to be — saying whatever he needs to say — when he needs to, regardless of his own history on any matter.

So in August, when state tax revenues came in much lower than expected, Little ordered a 3% cut to agency spending, saying it was a move to “implement President Trump’s tax cuts for Idahoans and make the best use of their hard-earned money while putting public schools first.”

The real story, however, is that the state is running a budget deficit, yet you’ve never heard these words from the governor’s lips. I believe this is because the state spends too much. Opinion writer Marty Trillhaase believes the state cut too much in taxes. Either way, the state faces a very large problem this fiscal year. I estimate the deficit to be about $300 million, depending how the economy performs. An even bigger problem emerges in the fiscal year that starts July 1, 2026. I calculate that deficit to be about $800 million.

Simply stated, the governor has not been upfront with Idahoans about what is happening. His only public statement on the matter is all about making the state more efficient and making room for the Trump tax cuts passed by Congress.

Brad’s strategy, it appears, is to focus his media apparatus on the latest big thing, which right now is immigration. It plays to the base of voters he needs to stay in office, and that’s all that matters. So here is what’s going to happen next:

Given that it’s October and no one has announced plans to run against Brad Little for governor in the Republican Primary, it seems obvious that the job is his for the next five years if he wants it. Because 2026 is an election year, the Legislature will avoid raising taxes to cover the deficit. They’ll instead draw on the state’s $1.6 billion in savings to close the gap. The 2026 election will happen, and Brad will be sworn in for a third term.

Come 2027, unless the economy swiftly turns around, the governor will propose a tax increase. He’ll argue that he’s the “tax cutting governor” and pat himself on the back for doing so much to budget “conservatively.” But he’ll then borrow from the Dirk Kempthorne playbook (2003) and argue that the state can’t just “skate by” and needs to raise taxes to support the public schoolchildren. There will be a fight over this, but eventually, Little will get his way, and Idaho residents will pay more in taxes.

Then, some years later, another visiting dignitary from Washington D.C., will stand at a podium and congratulate the governor for keeping taxes low. And Brad Little, the chameleon governor, will nod and smile, blend into the scenery, or quiet as a baked potato, and act as if it’s all perfectly true.

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